Care Shield Compliance Press Desk

The vacancy rate fell to 6.2%. Here is the fragile bit.

The vacancy rate is 6.2%, the lowest since 2015/16, but British nationals in the workforce fell by 40,000 while non-EU nationals rose by 60,000.

By the Care Shield Compliance Press Desk··3 min read·England
A row of staff lockers with one door hanging open and empty, a folded uniform on the bench below.
Illustration generated for Care Shield Compliance

The vacancy rate in English adult social care is 6.2%, the lowest since 2015/16. Turnover in the independent sector is down to 23.6%. Those are good numbers and they deserve to be said plainly. What sits underneath them is a workforce whose stability now depends on international recruitment at exactly the point when international recruitment is falling.

The headline figures

Skills for Care published its Size and structure report on 24 June 2026, with data to May 2026, drawn from around 21,100 providers and more than 760,000 staff records. The report is on the Skills for Care site.

  • 1.69 million total posts, of which 1.59 million are filled and 96,000 vacant.
  • Vacancy rate 6.2%, the lowest since 2015/16.
  • Independent sector turnover 23.6%, down from 24.7%.
  • Filled posts up 1.4%, an increase of 22,000.
  • Vacancies down 10.5%, a fall of 11,500.

On its own that reads like a sector recovering.

The composition problem

Now the other set of numbers. International recruits starting roles fell to 30,000, from 50,000. British nationals in the workforce fell by 40,000. Non-EU nationals rose by 60,000. Since 2022/23, 255,000 people have joined the workforce from outside the UK.

Put those together. The workforce grew by 22,000 filled posts while losing 40,000 British nationals. The growth is entirely accounted for by international recruitment — and international recruitment into new roles has fallen by 40% in a year.

That is the fragility. The vacancy improvement was purchased with a flow of people that has already slowed. If the domestic outflow continues at its current rate and the international inflow keeps falling, the arithmetic reverses without anything else changing.

What this means for you

  • Do not use the national vacancy rate in your own board reporting without your local figure beside it. Regional and service-type variation is large, and 6.2% may describe nothing about your position.
  • Look at your own workforce composition by nationality and by length of service. If your stability depends on internationally recruited staff, your risk is concentrated in visa and sponsorship policy rather than in local pay competition.
  • Model retention of internationally recruited staff specifically. People recruited from overseas since 2022/23 are now reaching the point where they can move employers or leave the sector, and 255,000 arrivals since 2022/23 is a large cohort approaching that decision.
  • Treat the turnover fall as an opportunity, not a result. 23.6% still means roughly one in four staff leaving a year. The improvement gives you a slightly wider window to fix the causes, not permission to stop.
  • Rebuild domestic recruitment. British nationals in the workforce fell by 40,000. Whatever route brought them in previously is not working, and the Care Workforce Pathway's expanded role categories give you a described progression story to recruit against.
  • Watch how the Fair Pay Agreement timetable interacts with all of this. Negotiations start April 2027 and the first agreement takes effect April 2028.

Where this came from

Skills for Care, Size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce, published 24 June 2026 with data to May 2026.

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Sources

  1. Size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce — Skills for Care

Questions people ask about this

Is the falling vacancy rate good news for providers?

It is genuinely better than a rising one, but the improvement rests on international recruitment. Filled posts rose by 22,000 while British nationals in the workforce fell by 40,000, and international starters dropped from 50,000 to 30,000. The trend that produced the improvement is already slowing.

What should we do about retention of internationally recruited staff?

Look at length of service across your internationally recruited workforce. Around 255,000 people have joined from outside the UK since 2022/23, and much of that cohort is now at the stage where moving employer or leaving the sector becomes a real option. Retention effort aimed at that group has the highest return.

Where does the data come from?

Skills for Care's Size and structure report, published 24 June 2026 with data to May 2026, drawing on around 21,100 providers and more than 760,000 staff records. It covers England. Use the national figures as context and your own local data for decisions, because regional variation is substantial.

How this was written. Care Shield’s press desk drafts from primary sources — the statute book, regulator publications and government announcements — and publishes automatically once every factual claim traces to a named source. The sources are listed above so you can check them. It is not legal advice, and it is not a substitute for reading the regulation that applies to your service. If you find something wrong, tell us at hello@careshieldcompliance.co.uk and we will correct it in public, on this page.

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